Recent improvements to the physical model of the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea Operational Oceanography Forecasting System
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Abstract: In order to satisfy the increasing demand for the marine forecasting capacity, the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea Operational Oceanography Forecasting System (BYEOFS) has been upgraded and improved to Version 2.0. Based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), a series of comparative experiments were conducted during the improvement process, including correcting topography, changing sea surface atmospheric forcing mode, adjusting open boundary conditions, and considering atmospheric pressure correction. (1) After the topography correction, the volume transport and meridional velocity maximum of Yellow Sea Warm Current increase obviously and the unreasonable bending of its axis around 36.1°N, 123.5°E disappears. (2) After the change of sea surface forcing mode, an effective negative feedback mechanism is formed between predicted sea surface temperature (SST) by the ocean model and sea surface radiation fluxes fields. The simulation errors of SST decreased significantly, and the annual average of root-mean-square error (RMSE) decreased by about 18%. (3) The change of the eastern lateral boundary condition of baroclinic velocity from mixed Radiation-Nudging to Clamped makes the unreasonable westward current in Tsushima Strait disappear. (4) The adding of mean sea level pressure correction option which forms the mean sea level gradient from the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea to the western Pacific in winter and autumn is helpful to increasing the fluctuation of SLA and outflow of the Yellow Sea when the cold high air pressure system controls the Yellow Sea area.
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Figure 2. Topography (solid line) and velocity field at 50 m (bule vector) in YS before (a) and after (b) topography revised.
Figure 3. Meridional (a, b) and zonal (c, d) velocity across and along 36.15°N section before (a, c) and after (b, d) topography revised.
Figure 4. Yellow Sea Warm Current VT (blue) and maximum velocity (red) of 35°N section in winter before (solid line) and after (dash line) topography revised.
Figure 5. Co-tidal charts (both dash lines and color filled for amplitude in cm, solid lines for phase in (°) and referred to 120°E) in and around the Taiwan Strait for M2 constituent before (a) and after (b) the BFC adjustment.
Figure 7. Simulation SST error in January (a, b), April (c, d), July (e, f) and October (g, h) of 2011 using direct forcing (left) and bulk_flux (right) modes.
Figure 8. The daily mean (solid lines) and yearly mean (dash lines) time series of domain averaged SST RMSE of each test in 2011.
Figure 9. Velocity field in the day abnormal outflow appeared used Rad-Nud (left) and Clamped (right) boundary option.
Figure 10. Minimum of monthly normal velocity of Tsushima Strait section (34.2°N, 129.48°E–34°N, 129.63°E) using Rad-Nud (red) and Clamped (blue) in eastern boundary condition.
Figure 11. Climatology monthly mean VT through TUS using Rad-Nud condition (red), Clamped condition (blue), calculated results using SLA (black; Takikawa and Yoon, 2005), model results (green) of Zheng et al. (2008) and observations using ADCP (cyan) from Takikawa et al. (2005).
Figure 13. Positions of three sections, the TUS (blue line), eastern channel of the TUS (green line), the eastern lateral boundary (red line), 12 buoy observation stations (red circles) and bathymetry (black lines, m) in the BS, the YS, the TUS and southern Japan Sea.
Figure 14. Monthly mean VT time series through the TUS (a), eastern channel of the TUS (b), and the eastern lateral boundary (c).
Figure 15. Normal velocity across the TUS (a, b), eastern channel of the TUS (c, d) and eastern lateral boundary (e, f) in December, 1985 using Rad-Nud (a, c, e) and Clamped (b, d, f) condition at eastern open boundary.
Figure 16. Simulated SLA with (left) and without (right) air pressure correction in January (a, b), April (c, d), July (e, f) and October (g, h).
Figure 17. Monthly mean air pressure differences between the air pressure at sea surface and the standard air pressure (1013.25 hPa) in January (a), April (b), July (c) and October (d) of 2017.
Figure 18. Daily air pressure difference index between the YS and area out of YS (blue), and SLA difference of YS area between before and after air pressure correction considered (red) in 2017.
Figure 19. Daily mean VT difference of through 34.5°N section in 2017 between experiments with and without atmospheric pressure correction.
Figure 20. The time series of domain averaged RMSE of forecasting SST in the 1st to 5th day (black, red, blue, green and cyan, respectively) before (circles) and after (asterisks) system improvement in 2017.
Table 1. Absolute mean errors of amplitude (cm) and phase (°) between measured data and simulated results for both before and after model improvements
Tidal components Harmonic constants Absolute mean error Before After M2 Amp/cm 11.0 11.2 Pha/(°) 9.8 7.3 S2 Amp/cm 4.4 4.9 Pha/(°) 8.9 7.9 K1 Amp/cm 3.6 2.5 Pha/(°) 8.6 6.3 O1 Amp/cm 2.4 1.8 Pha/(°) 6.5 6.3 
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Table 2. Experiment configurations and annual mean RMSE of SST
Test Forcing mode Correction EnOI Annual mean RMSE/°C 1 Direct forcing × × 1.75 2 Direct forcing √ × 1.30 3 Direct forcing × √ 1.16 4 Direct forcing √ √ 0.98 5 Bulk_flux √ × 1.06
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Table 3. RMSE of monthly mean VT through TUS by comparing Clamped and Rad-Nud boundary conditions with different observed data
Observation type Observations using ADCP/Sv Calculated results using SLA/Sv Model results of Zheng et al. (2008)/Sv Clamped 0.55 0.47 0.27 Rad-Nud 0.82 0.73 0.72
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Table 4. The annual mean RMSE (℃) of forecasting SST at each buoy position before and after system improvement in 5 d
1st day 2nd day 3rd day 4th day 5th day Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After QF102 1.30 0.99 1.35 0.94 1.38 0.93 1.37 0.92 1.41 0.98 QF103 0.88 0.66 0.91 0.69 0.95 0.69 0.91 0.72 0.90 0.72 QF104 0.91 0.78 0.94 0.79 0.91 0.74 0.95 0.79 0.89 0.82 QF105 0.90 0.73 0.89 0.73 0.92 0.72 0.97 0.84 0.97 0.86 QF106a 1.21 1.13 1.27 1.24 1.22 1.09 1.18 1.28 1.22 1.37 QF107a 1.40 0.85 1.32 0.85 1.26 0.85 1.29 0.80 1.45 0.89 QF108 1.10 0.58 1.13 0.64 1.20 0.67 1.13 0.70 1.13 0.74 QF109 1.13 0.66 1.08 0.67 1.09 0.70 1.01 0.76 1.09 0.82 QF110a 1.19 0.65 1.20 0.73 1.27 0.68 1.24 0.71 1.20 0.71 QF110b 1.13 0.52 1.12 0.51 1.15 0.54 1.19 0.51 1.20 0.47 QF111 1.01 0.63 1.04 0.68 1.09 0.67 1.09 0.65 1.12 0.80 QF113 1.10 1.14 1.20 1.14 1.18 1.18 1.25 1.18 1.12 1.18 Average 1.01 0.78 1.12 0.80 1.14 0.79 1.13 0.82 1.14 0.86
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Table 5. The annual mean RMSE (°C) of forecasting SST before and after system improvement in 5 d
Forecast day 1st day 2nd day 3rd day 4th day 5th day Before 1.24 1.25 1.28 1.30 1.29 After 1.00 1.03 1.08 1.11 1.12
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