Numerical sea ice prediction in China

A dynamic-thermodynamic ice model with three levels for simulating the ice growth, decay and drift in the Bohai Sea is presented on the basis of review of the climate and ice conditions in the Bohai Sea and the existing sea ice and the existing sea ice models.This model was linked to a numerical weather prediction model for forecasting ice conditions in the Bohai Sea and the northern Huanghai Sea (Yellow Sea) during the winters from 1990 to 1996 at the National Research Center for Marine environmental Forecasts (NRCMEF).The numerical sea ice forecasting products, such es fields of ice thickness, compactness and velocity, ice edge, parameters of ice ridge and local estimate of ice thickness and tracks of ice floes near drilling platforms were produced and sent to the National Marine Forecasting Station of NRCMEF and the Bohai Oil Corporation. Statistical verification has been used for making objective assessment of the model and the forecast system. This study outlines the climate and ire conditions in the Bohai Sea, application of satellite imagery, ice model and its forecasting results and services.