A study of long-term sea level variability in the East China Sea
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摘要: 本文利用卫星高度计海平面高度异常(MSLA)、中国沿海验潮站和中国海平面公报的海平面资料,分析了1993-2010年间东海海平面长期变化.首先用相关分析方法验证了MSLA数据在东海的适用性,结果表明验潮站与MSLA月均海平面变化相关性良好,MSLA数据适用于在东海近岸海平面监测.利用验潮站和海平面公报中东海沿岸省市海平面变化资料与东海研究区域全部MSLA网格点进行相关分析,发现在东海海域,黑潮对太平洋海平面变化起屏障作用,从相关系数分布图中可清晰的分辨黑潮主轴,黑潮的存在降低了东海与太平洋海平面变化的相关性.运用经验模态分解(EMD)方法得到了基于MSLA数据的东海海平面变化趋势和海平面上升速率分布,结果表明1993-2010年间,东海研究区域海平面平均上升了45.0 mm,平均上升速率为((2.5 ± 0.4) mm·a-1),小于全球平均上升速率(3 mm·a-1);黑潮主轴右侧海平面上升速率高于左侧和东海内部海域,进一步验证了黑潮在东海对全球变化的屏障作用,东海海平面变化可能主要受局地的海洋气候系统影响.Abstract: From the analyses of the satellite altimeter Maps of Sea Level Anomaly (MSLA) data, tidal gauge sea level data and historical sea level data, this paper investigates the long-term sea level variability in the East China Sea (ECS). Based on the correlation analysis, we calculate the correlation coefficient between tidal gauge and the closest MSLA grid point, then generate the map of correlation coefficient of the entire ECS. The results show that the satellite altimeter MSLA data is effective to observe coastal sea level variability. An important finding is that from map of correlation coefficient we can identify the Kuroshio. The existence of Kuroshio decreases the correlation between coastal and the Pacific sea level. Kurishio likes a barrier or a wall, which blocks the effect of the Pacific and the global change. Moreover, coastal sea level in the ECS is mainly associated with local systems rather than global change. In order to calculate the long-term sea level variability trend, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method is applied to derive the trend on each MSLA grid point in the entire ECS. According to the 2-D distribution of the trend and rising rate, the sea level on the right side of the axis of Kuroshio rise faster than in its left side. This result supports the barrier effect of Kuroshio in the ECS. For the entire ECS, the average sea level rose 45.0 mm between 1993 and 2010, with a rising rate of (2.5±0.4) mm/a which is slower than global average. The relatively slower sea level rising rate further proves that sea level rise in the ECS has less response to global change due to its own local system effect.
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