A numerical investigation into the long-term behaviors of Fukushima-derived 137Cs in the ocean
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摘要: 2011年的日本福岛核事故导致大量放射性物质(包括137Cs)泄漏并进入太平洋。本文建立了一个水平分辨率为0.5°×0.5°,垂向21 sigma层的准全球放射性物质数值模式,模拟并预测了福岛核事故泄漏的放射性物质137Cs的长期输运过程。模拟结果表明,137Cs主体部分在黑潮和黑潮延伸体的作用下快速向东移动,并在事故发生4-5年后抵达北美洲沿岸海域,其浓度小于2 Bq/m3; 137Cs的一个南向分支会随着海水流动在2016年进入印度洋和南太平洋,但浓度不高;与此同时,137Cs的另一分支向北太平洋输运,其浓度同样会迅速衰减。在深水区,137Cs污染水体主要在上层(上400 m),从其浓度看,没有明显高于向下扩散趋势。Abstract: The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 released large amounts of radionuclides, including 137Cs, into the Pacific Ocean. A quasi-global ocean radioactive transport model with horizontal grid spacing of 0.5°×0.5° and 21 vertical layers was thereafter established to study the long-term transport of the Fukushima-derived 137Cs in the ocean. The simulation shows that the plume of 137Cs would be rapidly transported eastward alongside the Kuroshio Current and its extensions. Contaminated waters with concentrations lower than 2 Bq/m3 would reach the west coast of North America 4 or 5 years after the accident. The 137Cs tends to be carried, despite its very low concentration, into the Indian and South Pacific Oceans by 2016 via various branches of ocean currents. Meanwhile, the 137Cs concentrations in the western part of the North Pacific Ocean decrease rapidly with time. Up to now the highly contaminated waters have remained in the upper 400 m, showing no evidence of significant penetration to deeper layers.
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Key words:
- Fukushima accident /
- 137Cs /
- radioactivity model /
- Kuroshio
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