Establishment of ocean dumping area capacity assessment model
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摘要: 倾倒区容量主要受海水动力过程(潮流输沙、风暴潮和风浪掀沙等)、倾倒区面积和水深地形等因素影响。本文基于FVCOM(Finite Volume Coast and Ocean Model)三维数值模型和随机动态统计分析模型, 利用倾倒区地形演变和倾倒量资料, 探讨海水动力过程(潮流输沙、风暴潮和风浪掀沙等)和倾废活动对海底地形变化的影响, 构建海洋倾倒区容量长期演变评估模型。利用FVCOM水动力和泥沙模型计算自然状态下潮流输沙引起的地形变化, 同时结合倾倒区多年实测水深和倾倒量资料, 分析倾倒量、潮流输沙和地形变化的统计关系, 通过实际资料拟合修订系数, 作为该倾倒区海浪和风暴潮等因素输沙所造成地形变化的参考值, 以此评估倾倒区容量长期演变。在设定实际地形变化阈值的前提下, 计算倾倒区容量。以长江口1#倾倒区为例, 1#倾倒区地形抬升0.5m/a,倾倒区容量约为670万方/a,模型结果和实际批复结果吻合。同时在甬江口2#倾倒区、罗源湾倾倒区、嵊泗上川山、东碇倾倒区和温州港倾倒区等验证, 模拟结果同实际观测结果相近。Abstract: Dumping area capacity is mainly affected by the hydrodynamic process (tidal sediment, storm surge and wave, etc.) as well as the size and depth of dumping area. Based on three-dimensional ocean circulation model known as FVCOM (Finite Volume Coast and Ocean Model) and the stochastic dynamic statistical analysis model, taking advantage of dumping ground topography evolution and dumping quantity, the author aims to discuss the influence of hydrodynamic processes and dumping activity so as to built a new model of ocean dumping area capacity. With the data of depth and dumped amount in the dumping area, the changes of bottom topographic which caused by tidal current under the natural condition based on the FVCOM hydrodynamic and sediment module, the author strive to analyze the statistical relation of the changes for dumping amount, tidal current and bottom topographic. Through real data to fit revision coefficient values, which will be regarded as topographic changes reference value affected by wave and storm surges. Thus taking this evaluation as the long-term changes in the dumping capacity. In the premise of setting up the threshold of bottom topographic changes, the dumping area capacity is calculated. Take Yangtze Estuary No. 1 dumping area as an example, As the water depth reduces by 0.5 m annually, the dumping area capacity is about 6.7 million m3/a, the model results are in reasonable agreement with the actual amount. Then the model is validated in Luoyuan Bay dumping area, Shengsishangchuan Mountain dumping area, Dongding dumping area, Dongshan dumping area, and Wenzhou Port dumping area, it is turns out the results are similar to that of the actual observations.
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