Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline

SONG Mirong; WEI Lixin; WANG Zhenzhan

doi:10.1007/s13131-016-0854-5

Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline

doi: 10.1007/s13131-016-0854-5

1.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China
3.
Key Laboratory of Microwave Remote Sensing, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

基金项目: The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41305097 and 41176169.

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2015-05-20
- 修回日期: 2015-07-14

Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline

1.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China
3.
Key Laboratory of Microwave Remote Sensing, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

摘要

摘要: 近几十年来,北极海冰呈现减少趋势,但自然变率对近期及未来北极海冰变化的贡献大小仍然存在争议。为此,本文仔细筛选了全球气候模式,并对有强迫与无强迫因子下模拟的北极海冰趋势与北极海冰观测记录扩展得到的北极海冰趋势进行了比较。结果显示,针对1979-2013年这35年卫星观测的9月份北极海冰覆盖范围的变化,自然变率的贡献不超过42.3%,这一结果与使用更长记录如从1953到2013年这61年的结果类似(61年的结果为自然变率的贡献小于48.5%),证实了人为强迫对近些年9月份北极海冰减少起到关键作用。同时模式模拟结果表明,进入21世纪,随着温室气体的增加,由自然变率导致的北极海冰变化仍存在正负趋势,且趋势量级略微增加,但正趋势与负趋势实现个数的比值仍维持平稳,这一结果表明未来外界强迫仍是北极海冰减少的重要决定因子。
- internalvariability /
- seaicedecline /
- externalforcing
Abstract: Arctic sea ice extent has been declining in recent decades. There is ongoing debate on the contribution of natural internal variability to recent and future Arctic sea ice changes. In this study, we contrast the trends in the forced and unforced simulations of carefully selected global climate models with the extended observed Arctic sea ice records. The results suggest that the natural variability explains no more than 42.3% of the observed September sea ice extent trend during 35 a (1979-2013) satellite observations, which is comparable to the results of the observed sea ice record extended back to 1953 (61 a, less than 48.5% natural variability). This reinforces the evidence that anthropogenic forcing plays a substantial role in the observed decline of September Arctic sea ice in recent decades. The magnitude of both positive and negative trends induced by the natural variability in the unforced simulations is slightly enlarged in the context of increasing greenhouse gases in the 21st century. However, the ratio between the realizations of positive and negative trends change has remained steady, which enforces the standpoint that external forcing will remain the principal determiner of the decreasing Arctic sea ice extent trend in the future.
- internal variability /
- sea ice decline /
- external forcing

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参考文献(25)

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Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline

doi: 10.1007/s13131-016-0854-5

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Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline

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