Concept and evaluation of bay health: the role of numerical model in the Yueqing Bay, China
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摘要: 本文引入数值化海湾健康理论,提出三维数值化海湾健康评估方法以评估和预测海湾健康动态。选用五个指标组用以构建数值化海湾健康指标体系,包括地理指标组、水动力和泥沙动态指标组、生态指标组、水质指标组和社会经济指标组,用以评估自然过程和社会经济对海湾健康的影响。每一指标组中包括不同数量的二级指标。根据二级指标的不同重要性,运用层次分析法对其赋予不同的权重。指标的数据来源于三维数值模型和观测数据。三维数值模型能够为海湾健康评估提供更加全面、完整和详细的数据,并且可以提供预测数据。以乐清湾为例,数值化海湾健康评估方法成功应用于其健康评估过程。基于评估结果,乐清湾口门处表层水体的地理环境是健康的,水动力过程和泥沙动态过程属于亚健康状态,水质和生态环境处于不健康状态。总体而言,乐清湾的海湾健康评估结果为亚健康状态。Abstract: To better evaluate the three-dimensional bay health and predict the dynamic bay health conditions, a concept of numerical bay health was introduced and a method of numerical bay health evaluation (NBHE) was developed. To support the NBHE method, a numerical bay health index (NBHI) system was constructed, which assess the natural and socio-economic effects on the entire bay. Five index groups are combined to formulate the NBHI, including geometry, hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics, bio-ecology, water quality and socio-economy. Each group has different number of indices selected and weighted using AHP method according to their importance. Data were mainly synthesized from a variety of numerical models together with monitoring programs, which provide superior to other approaches in discriminating data integrity and predicting data in future. The NBHE method using NBHI system was applied in the Yueqing Bay during spring tide in April 2007. According to the NBHE results, Sta. A, at the surface level of the estuarine mouth, has a healthy geometry condition, sub-healthy hydrodynamic and sediment dynamic condition, and unhealthy water quality and bioecology conditions. The integrated healthy score at Sta. A indicates its sub-healthy condition.
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