Seasonal and inter-annual variations of Arctic cyclones and their linkage with Arctic sea ice and atmospheric teleconnections

WEI Lixin; QIN Ting; LI Cheng

doi:10.1007/s13131-017-1117-9

北极气旋的季节、年际变化及其与北极海冰、大气遥相关的关系

doi: 10.1007/s13131-017-1117-9

1.
国家海洋环境预报中心国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京, 100081
2.
国家海洋环境预报中心国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 北京, 100081;教育部物理海洋重点实验室中国海洋大学, 青岛, 266100

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- 收稿日期: 2017-06-27

Seasonal and inter-annual variations of Arctic cyclones and their linkage with Arctic sea ice and atmospheric teleconnections

1.
Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China;Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China

摘要

摘要: 本文采用英国雷丁大学的一套气旋自动追踪方案，利用欧洲中心ERA-interim 34年的逐6小时海平面气压再分析数据，对北极气旋的季节和年际变化进行了统计分析。北极气旋数量冬季最多，春季最少而不是在夏季，但存在年际差异；夏季有50%左右的气旋是在70°N以南生成移入到北极地区的；北极气旋个数的季节和年际变化明显，但是1979-2012年间的线性变化趋势不显著。夏季气旋的活动范围最广，并且在CRU区域（俄罗斯中心区）气旋密度的增加达到了显著水平，而该区域冬季是极区最大的气旋路径密度区，有减少的趋势。气旋路径密度与同期大气环流指数及前期海冰指数的回归分析表明，极地气旋活动与北极涛动（AO）、北大西洋涛动（NAO）、太平洋-北美型（PNA）等大尺度环流有着密切的联系，在有些区域，与前期的海冰面积也有着显著地关联。
- 北极气旋 /
- 气旋自动追踪算法 /
- 大尺度气候指数 /
- 海冰面积指数 /
- 回归分析
Abstract: The seasonal and inter-annual variations of Arctic cyclone are investigated. An automatic cyclone tracking algorithm developed by University of Reading was applied on the basis of European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-interim mean sea level pressure field with 6 h interval for 34 a period. The maximum number of the Arctic cyclones is counted in winter, and the minimum is in spring not in summer. About 50% of Arctic cyclones in summer generated from south of 70°N, moving into the Arctic. The number of Arctic cyclones has large inter-annual and seasonal variabilities, but no significant linear trend is detected for the period 1979-2012. The spatial distribution and linear trends of the Arctic cyclones track density show that the cyclone activity extent is the widest in summer with significant increasing trend in CRU (central Russia) subregion, and the largest track density is in winter with decreasing trend in the same subregion. The linear regressions between the cyclone track density and large-scale indices for the same period and pre-period sea ice area indices show that Arctic cyclone activities are closely linked to large-scale atmospheric circulations, such as Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA). Moreover, the pre-period sea ice area is significantly associated with the cyclone activities in some regions.
- Arctic cyclones /
- automated detection and tracking algorithm /
- large-scale climate indices /
- sea ice area index /
- regression analysis

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北极气旋的季节、年际变化及其与北极海冰、大气遥相关的关系

doi: 10.1007/s13131-017-1117-9

计量

出版历程

Seasonal and inter-annual variations of Arctic cyclones and their linkage with Arctic sea ice and atmospheric teleconnections

计量

出版历程

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