Potential effects of subduction rate in the key ocean on global warming hiatus

CHEN Xingrong; LIU Shan; CAI Yi; ZHANG Shouwen

doi:10.1007/s13131-017-1130-z

关键海区潜沉率对全球变暖停滞的可能影响

doi: 10.1007/s13131-017-1130-z

1.
国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京, 10081;国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室, 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京, 10081
2.
国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京, 10081

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金（41605052）；国家海洋公益性行业科研专项（201505013）。

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- 收稿日期: 2017-07-10

Potential effects of subduction rate in the key ocean on global warming hiatus

1.
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China;Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China
2.
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China

摘要

摘要: 本文从潜沉率入手，探究了潜沉率在全球变暖停滞过程中可能发挥的作用。本文利用SODA资料首先分析了全球潜沉率的时空分布特征，然后基于EOF分解明确了北大西洋翻转流区域和南极绕极流区域是潜沉率变率较大的两个海区，在此基础上选出了4个关键海区研究了局地潜沉率变化与全球海表温度异常之间的相关关系，最后对关键区潜沉率变化的原因进行了初步探索。结果表明，北大西洋翻转流和南极绕极流范围内的关键区域与全球变暖停滞之间存在超前10年的相关关系，潜沉过程可能是北大西洋翻转流和南极绕极流对全球变暖停滞产生作用的一种机制。平流项在这些关键区域的潜沉率变化中起主导作用。在南极绕极流地区，海面风应力的大小与该区域的潜沉变化密切相关。
- 全球变暖停滞 /
- 海表面温度 /
- 年代际变化 /
- 潜沉率
Abstract: In this study, the possible effects of subduction rate on global warming hiatus were investigated using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) data. This study first analyzed the characteristics of the temporal and spatial distribution of global subduction rate, which revealed that the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation region and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region are the two main sea areas with great subduction variations. On this basis, four key areas were selected to explore the relationship between the local subduction rate and the global mean sea surface temperature. In addition, the reason for the variations in subduction rate was preliminarily explored. The results show good correspondence of the subduction of the key areas in the North Atlantic meridional overturning the circulation region and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region to the global warming hiatus, with the former leading by about 10 years. The subduction process may be a physical mechanism by which the North Atlantic overturning circulation and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current act on the stagnation of global warming. Advection effect plays an important role in the variations in subduction in the key regions. In the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region, the magnitude of sea surface wind stress is closely related to the local changes in subduction.
- global warming hiatus /
- sea surface temperature /
- inter-decadal variation /
- subduction rate

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参考文献(32)

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文章访问数: 1042
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关键海区潜沉率对全球变暖停滞的可能影响

doi: 10.1007/s13131-017-1130-z

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Potential effects of subduction rate in the key ocean on global warming hiatus

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