Seasonal prediction skills of FIO-ESM for North Pacific sea surface temperature and precipitation

ZHAO Yiding; YIN Xunqiang; SONG Yajuan; QIAO Fangli

doi:10.1007/s13131-019-1366-x

FIO-ESM气候模式北太平洋海表温度和降水的季节性预报技巧评估

doi: 10.1007/s13131-019-1366-x

1.
中国海洋大学海洋与大气科学学院, 青岛, 266100;国家海洋局第一海洋研究所, 青岛, 266061
2.
国家海洋局第一海洋研究所, 青岛, 266061;海洋科学与技术国家实验室, 区域海洋动力学与数值模拟功能实验室, 青岛, 266071;国家海洋局海洋环境科学和数值模拟重点实验室, 青岛, 266061

基金项目: The National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers under contract No. U1606405; the National Programme on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction under contract Nos GASI-IPOVAI-05 and GASI-IPOVAI-06; the International Cooperation Project on the China-Australia Research Centre for Maritime Engineering of Ministry of Science and Technology, China under contract No. 2016YFE0101400...

计量
- 文章访问数: 817
- HTML全文浏览量: 74
- PDF下载量: 238
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2017-09-10

Seasonal prediction skills of FIO-ESM for North Pacific sea surface temperature and precipitation

1.
College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, China
2.
First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, China;Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao 266071, China;Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, China

摘要

摘要: 本文利用FIO-ESM（First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model）气候模式后报结果，对北太平洋海表温度（SST）和降水的季节性预报技巧进行评估。该气候模式同化系统采用了集合调整卡尔曼滤波（EAKF）同化方法，模式同化结果与观测数据对比，表现出较高的可靠性，可为预测提供合理的初始场。在此基础上，开展了1993-2013年期间逐月的6个月集合预测。分析发现，FIO-ESM气候模式在北太平洋大部分海域表现出较高的SST预报技巧，尤其是在中纬度海域改善最为明显。通过海-气相互作用，改进的海洋预测要素传递到大气中，使得降水在中纬度地区的预报技巧也有较明显的改进。接下来计算了NPV（North Pacific variability）指数的预报技巧，在ENSO与NPV同位相（反位相）时，NPV指数的平均预报技巧可达0.72（0.55），相比CFSv2的结果，FIO-ESM气候模式NPV指数的预报技巧提高了11.6%（23.6%）。通过对不同季节NPV指数预报技巧的分析发现，FIO-ESM气候模式在预测的后期预报技巧明显高于持续性预测的技巧。
- 季节性预测 /
- 北太平洋 /
- 海表温度 /
- 降水 /
- FIO-ESM气候模式
Abstract: The seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation in the North Pacific based on the hindcast results of The First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model (FIO-ESM) is assessed in this study. The Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter assimilation scheme is used to generate initial conditions, which are shown to be reliable by comparison with the observations. Based on this comparison, we analyze the FIO-ESM 6-month hindcast results starting from each month of 1993-2013. The model exhibits high SST prediction skills over most of the North Pacific for two seasons in advance. Furthermore, it remains skillful at long lead times for mid-latitudes. The reliable prediction of SST can transfer fairly well to precipitation prediction via air-sea interactions. The average skill of the North Pacific variability (NPV) index from 1 to 6 months lead is as high as 0.72 (0.55) when El Niño-Southern Oscillation and NPV are in phase (out of phase) at initial conditions. The prediction skill of the NPV index of FIO-ESM is improved by 11.6% (23.6%) over the Climate Forecast System, Version 2. For seasonal dependence, the skill of FIO-ESM is higher than the skill of persistence prediction in the later period of prediction.
- seasonal prediction /
- North Pacific /
- sea surface temperature /
- precipitation /
- FIO-ESM climate model

HTML全文

参考文献(51)

Alexander M A, Bladé I, Newman M, et al. 2002. The atmospheric bridge:The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans. Journal of Climate, 15(16):2205-2231, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2205:TABTIO>2.0.CO;2

Alexander M A, Matrosova L, Penland C, et al. 2008. Forecasting Pacific SSTs:Linear inverse model predictions of the PDO. Journal of Climate, 21(2):385-402, doi: 10.1175/2007JCLI1849.1

Anderson J L. 2001. An ensemble adjustment Kalman filter for data assimilation. Monthly Weather Review, 129(12):2884-2903, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2884:AEAKFF>2.0.CO;2

Auad G, Miller A J, Roads J O. 2004. Pacific ocean forecasts. Journal of Marine Systems, 45(1-2):75-90, doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2003.11.010

Beattie J C, Elsberry R L. 2012. Western North Pacific monsoon depression formation. Weather and Forecasting, 27(6):1413-1432, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00094.1

Chen Hui, Yin Xunqiang, Song Zhengya, et al. 2015. The impacts of ocean data assimilation on tropical precipitation bias in a climate model. Haiyang Xuebao (in Chinese), 37(7):41-53

Dai Aiguo. 2006. Precipitation characteristics in eighteen coupled climate models. Journal of Climate, 19(18):4605-4630, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3884.1

Di Lorenzo E, Cobb K M, Furtado J C, et al. 2010. Central pacific El Niño and decadal climate change in the North Pacific Ocean. Nature Geoscience, 3(11):762-765, doi: 10.1038/ngeo984

Duan Wansuo, Wu Yujie. 2015. Season-dependent predictability and error growth dynamics of Pacific Decadal Oscillation-related sea surface temperature anomalies. Climate Dynamics, 44(3-4):1053-1072, doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2364-5

Ezer T, Mellor G L. 1994. Continuous assimilation of geosat altimeter data into a three-dimensional primitive equation Gulf Stream model. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 24(4):832-847, doi: 10.1175/1520-0485(1994)024<0832:CAOGAD>2.0.CO;2

Ezer T, Mellor G L. 1997. Simulations of the Atlantic ocean with a free surface sigma coordinate ocean model. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 102(C7):15647-15657, doi: 10.1029/97JC00984

Goddard L. 2012. Climate predictions, seasonal-to-decadal. In:Rasch P, ed. Climate Change Modeling Methodology. New York:Springer, 261

Guilyardi E, Madec G. 1997. Performance of the OPA/ARPEGE-T21 global ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Climate Dynamics, 13(2):149-165, doi: 10.1007/s003820050157

Haines K. 1991. A direct method for assimilating sea surface height data into ocean models with adjustments to the deep circulation. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 21(6):843-868, doi: 10.1175/1520-0485(1991)021<0843:ADMFAS>2.0.CO;2

Hasselmann K. 1991. Ocean circulation and climate change. Tellus A:Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 43(4):82-103, doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v43i4.11939

Hu Zengzhen, Huang Bohua. 2009. Interferential impact of ENSO and PDO on dry and wet conditions in the U. S. Great Plains. Journal of Climate, 22(22):6047-6065, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2798.1

Hu Zengzhen, Kumar A, Huang Bohua, et al. 2014. Prediction skill of North Pacific variability in NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2:Impact of ENSO and beyond. Journal of Climate, 27(11):4263-4272, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00633.1

Huang Chuanjiang, Qiao Fangli, Shu Qi, et al. 2012. Evaluating austral summer mixed-layer response to surface wave-induced mixing in the Southern Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 117(C11):C00J18

Huang Chuanjiang, Qiao Fangli, Song Zhenya, et al. 2011. Improving simulations of the upper ocean by inclusion of surface waves in the Mellor-Yamada turbulence scheme. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 116(C1):C01007

Kelly K A, Small R J, Samelson R M, et al. 2010. Western boundary currents and frontal air-sea interaction:gulf stream and Kuroshio Extension. Journal of Climate, 23(21):5644-5667, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3346.1

Kim H M, Webster P J, Curry J A. 2012. Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter. Climate Dynamics, 39(12):2957-2973, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1364-6

Kwon Y O, Alexander M A, Bond N A, et al. 2010. Role of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio-Oyashio systems in large-scale atmosphere-ocean interaction:a review. Journal of Climate, 23(12):3249-3281, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3343.1

Landman W A, Mason S J. 2001. Forecasts of near-global sea surface temperatures using canonical correlation analysis. Journal of Climate, 14(18):3819-3833, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3819:FONGSS>2.0.CO;2

Latif M, Barnett T P. 1994. Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America. Science, 266(5185):634-637, doi: 10.1126/science.266.5185.634

Lau K M, Lee J Y, Kim K M, et al. 2004. The North Pacific as a regulator of summertime climate over Eurasia and North America. Journal of Climate, 17(4):819-833, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0819:TNPAAR>2.0.CO;2

Lau N C, Nath M J. 1994. A modeling study of the relative roles of tropical and extratropical SST anomalies in the variability of the global atmosphere-ocean system. Journal of Climate, 7(7):1184-1207

Lau N C, Nath M J. 1996. The role of the "atmospheric bridge" in linking tropical Pacific ENSO events to extratropical SST anomalies. Journal of Climate, 9(9):2036-2057, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2036:TROTBI>2.0.CO;2

Li Gang, Chen Jiepeng, Wang Xin, et al. 2017. Modulation of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the relationship of El Niño with southern China rainfall during early boreal winter. Atmospheric Science Letters, 18(8):336-341, doi: 10.1002/asl.761

Lienert F. 2011. Simulation and Prediction of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature. Victoria:University of Victoria.

Mantua N J, Hare S R, Zhang Yuan, et al. 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78(6):1069-1079, doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2

Namias J, Born R M. 1970. Temporal coherence in North Pacific sea-surface temperature patterns. Journal of Geophysical Research, 75(30):5952-5955, doi: 10.1029/JC075i030p05952

Overland J E, Alheit J, Bakun A, et al. 2010. Climate controls on marine ecosystems and fish populations. Journal of Marine Systems, 79(3-4):305-315, doi: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.12.009

Qiao Fangli, Song Zhenya, Bao Ying, et al. 2013. Development and evaluation of an Earth System Model with surface gravity waves. Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 118(9):4514-4524, doi: 10.1002/jgrc.20327

Qiao F L, Yuan Y L, Ezer T, et al. 2010. A three-dimensional surface wave-ocean circulation coupled model and its initial testing. Ocean Dynamics, 60(5):1339-1355, doi: 10.1007/s10236-010-0326-y

Qiao Fangli, Yuan Yeli, Yang Yongzeng, et al. 2004. Wave-induced mixing in the upper ocean:Distribution and application to a global ocean circulation model. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(11):L11303

Ratheesh S, Sharma R, Basu S. 2012. Projection-based assimilation of satellite-derived surface data in an Indian ocean circulation model. Marine Geodesy, 35(2):175-187, doi: 10.1080/01490419.2011.637855

Shu Qi, Qiao Fangli, Bao Ying, et al. 2015. Assessment of Arctic sea ice simulation by FIO-ESM based on data assimilation experiment. Haiyang Xuebao (in Chinese), 37(11):33-40

Song Zhenya, Qiao Fangli, Lei Xiaoyan, et al. 2007. The establishment of an atmosphere-wave-ocean circulation coupled numerical model and its application in the North Pacific SST simulation. Journal of Hydrodynamics (in Chinese), 22(5):543-548

Song Zhenya, Shu Qi, Bao Ying, et al. 2015. The prediction on the 2015/16 El Niño event from the perspective of FIO-ESM. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 34(12):67-71, doi: 10.1007/s13131-015-0787-4

Wang Xin, Wang Dongxiao, Zhou Wen. 2009. Decadal variability of twentieth-century El Niño and La Niña occurrence from observations and IPCC AR4 coupled models. Geophysical Research Letters, 36(11):L11701, doi: 10.1029/2009GL037929

Wen Caihong, Xue Yan, Kumar A. 2012. Seasonal prediction of North Pacific SSTs and PDO in the NCEP CFS hindcasts. Journal of Climate, 25(17):5689-5710, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00556.1

Xing Wen, Wang Bin, Yim S Y. 2016. Long-lead seasonal prediction of China summer rainfall using an EOF-PLS regression-based methodology. Journal of Climate, 29(5):1783-1796, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0016.1

Yeh S W, Wang Xin, Wang Chuanzai, et al. 2015. On the relationship between the North Pacific climate variability and the central Pacific El Niño. Journal of Climate, 28(2):663-677, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00137.1

Yin Xunqiang. 2015. Development of assimilation module for ensemble adjustment Kalman filter and its applications in ocean and climate system models (in Chinese)[dissertation]. Qingdao:Ocean University of China

Yin Xunqiang, Qiao Fangli, Yang Yongzeng, et al. 2010. An ensemble adjustment Kalman filter study for Argo data. Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 28(3):626-635, doi: 10.1007/s00343-010-9017-2

Yu Jinyi, Wang Xin, Yang Song, et al. 2017. The changing El Niño-Southern Oscillation and associated climate extremes. In:Wang S Y S, Yoon J H, Fuck C C, et al., eds. Climate Extremes:Patterns and Mechanisms. Hoboken, NJ:AGU Geophysical Monograph Series, 226:3-38

Yuan Y, Qiao F, Hua F, et al. 1999. The development of a coastal circulation numerical model:1. Wave-induced mixing and wave-current interaction. Chinese Journal of Hydrodynamics (in Chinese), 14:1-8

Zhang Ying, Zhu Jieshun, Li Zhongxian, et al. 2017. Sea surface temperature predictions using a multi-ocean analysis ensemble scheme. Climate Dynamics, 49(3):1049-1059, doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3100-0

Zhao Xia, Li Jianping, Zhang Wenjun. 2012. Summer persistence barrier of sea surface temperature anomalies in the central western north pacific. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 29(6):1159-1173, doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-1253-2

Zhou Wen, Li Chongyin, Wang Xin. 2007. Possible connection between Pacific Oceanic interdecadal pathway and east Asian winter monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(1):L01701

Zhu Jieshun, Kumar A, Wang Hui, et al. 2015. Sea surface temperature predictions in NCEP CFSv2 using a simple ocean initialization scheme. Monthly Weather Review, 143(8):3176-3191, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00297.1

施引文献

资源附件(0)

访问统计

点击查看大图

计量

文章访问数: 817
HTML全文浏览量: 74
PDF下载量: 238
被引次数: 0

FIO-ESM气候模式北太平洋海表温度和降水的季节性预报技巧评估

doi: 10.1007/s13131-019-1366-x

计量

出版历程

Seasonal prediction skills of FIO-ESM for North Pacific sea surface temperature and precipitation

计量

出版历程

目录