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Abstract:
The main purpose of this study is to highlight, on the basis of statistical tests, the significant long-term changes of the Mediterranean Sea level, through the analysis of historical tide gauge records. In this framework, 14 tide gauge monthly series selected from the Permanent Service of the Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database were used. The search for the presence or not of trends within these series, that have a temporal coverage from 59 to 142 years, was carried out using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimator. The obtained results show that the Split Rt Marjana series are the only ones which does not exhibit a significant trend. The other 13 series show significant increasing trends. This result seems sufficient to suppose the presence, in the past century, of a new climatic phase on the scale of the Mediterranean basin, where the rising sea level is one of the consequences. -
Key words:
- sea level /
- tidal heights /
- trend analysis /
- Mann-Kendall test /
- Sen’s slope estimates
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/61.php
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/761.php
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/353.php
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Figure 1. Monthly mean sea level (in mm). From top to bottom and from left to right: Tarifa (Spain), Algeciras (Spain), Malaga (Spain), Marseille (France), Genova (Italy), Venezia (Punta Della Salute) (Italy), Trieste (Italy), Rovinj (Croatia), Bakar (Croatia), Split Rt Marjana (Croatia), Split-Gradska Luka (Croatia), Dubrovnik (Croatia), Alexandria (Egypt) and Ceuta (Spain).
Table 1. Descriptive statistics of used tide gauge data.
PSMSL station
codeStation Latitude/
(°)Longitude/
(°)Data range Obs. Obs. with
missing dataObs. without
missing dataSlope/
mm·a–1Standard
deviation/
mm·a–1220/021 Tarifa 36.008 600 –5.602 600 1943–2016 880 50 830 1.14 0.12 220/011 Algeciras 36.116 669 –5.433 333 1943–2002 711 127 584 0.37 0.13 220/031 Malaga 36.712 700 –4.415 460 1944–2013 840 149 691 0.78 0.14 230/051 Marseille 43.278 801 5.353 860 1885–2016 1 583 48 1 535 1.31 0.05 250/011 Genova 44.400 000 8.900 000 1884–1997 1 368 297 1 071 1.19 0.06 270/054 Venezia (Punta Della Salute) 45.433 333 12.333 333 1909–2000 1 104 65 1 039 2.44 0.10 270/061 Trieste 45.647 361 13.758 472 1875–2016 1 704 230 1 474 1.32 0.06 280/006 Rovinj 45.083 300 13.628 300 1955–2014 714 3 711 0.85 0.18 280/011 Bakar 45.300 000 14.533 333 1930–2013 1 008 132 876 1.10 0.13 280/021 Split Rt Marjana 43.508 333 16.391 667 1952–2011 716 8 708 –0.01 0.18 280/031 Split– Gradska Luka 43.506 700 16.441 700 1954–2014 730 0 730 1.06 0.17 280/081 Dubrovnik 42.658 300 18.063 300 1956–2014 708 7 701 1.56 0.17 330/071 Alexandria 31.216 667 29.916 667 1944–2006 755 33 722 1.77 0.17 340/001 Ceuta 35.892 400 –5.315 890 1944–2016 874 28 846 0.68 0.09 
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Table 2. Man-Kendall trend test
PSMSL station
codeStation Data range Mann-Kendall
statistic SVar S p value Risk to reject the null
hypothesis H0 while
it is true/%220/021 Tarifa 1943–2016 77 957.000 63 644 155.667 <0.000 1 <0.01 220/011 Algeciras 1943–2002 11 249.000 22 185 786.333 0.017 1.69 220/031 Malaga 1944–2013 39 630.000 36 737 888.667 <0.000 1 <0.01 230/051 Marseille 1885–2016 503 942.000 402 249 772.000 <0.000 1 <0.01 250/011 Genova 1884–1997 211 644.000 1 366 844 12.667 <0.000 1 <0.01 270/054 Venezia (Punta Della Salute) 1909–2000 230 566.000 124 801 981.333 <0.000 1 <0.01 270/061 Trieste 1875–2016 407 832.000 356 190 664.667 <0.000 1 <0.01 280/006 Rovinj 1955–2014 33 495.000 40 018 652.333 <0.000 1 <0.01 280/011 Bakar 1930–2013 80 595.000 74 816 433.000 <0.000 1 <0.01 280/021 Split Rt Marjana 1952–2011 7 043.000 39 514 591.000 0.263 26.25 280/031 Split – Gradska Luka 1954–2014 44 872.000 43 310 978.000 <0.000 1 <0.01 280/081 Dubrovnik 1956–2014 58 345.000 38 354 886.333 <0.000 1 <0.01 330/071 Alexandria 1944–2006 61 332.000 41 903 860.667 <0.000 1 <0.01 340/001 Ceuta 1944–2016 59 598.000 67 392 980.000 <0.000 1 <0.01
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Table 3. Seasonal Man-Kendall trend test, period=12
PSMSL station code Station Data range Seasonal Mann-Kendall
statistic $\hat S$$Var\;\hat S$ p value Risk to reject the null
hypothesis H0 while
it is true/%220/021 Tarifa 1943–2016 7 423.000 444 189.667 <0.000 1 <0.01 220/011 Algeciras 1943–2002 1 331.000 155 999.000 0.001 <0.08 220/031 Malaga 1944–2013 4 036.000 261 128.667 <0.000 1 <0.01 230/051 Marseille 1885–2016 47 047.000 2 769 162.333 <0.000 1 <0.01 250/011 Genova 1884–1997 20 645.000 964 047.667 < 0.000 1 <0.01 270/054 Venezia (Punta Della Salute) 1909–2000 21 238.000 880 667.333 < 0.000 1 <0.01 270/061 Trieste 1875–2016 37 906.000 2 500 688.000 < 0.000 1 <0.01 280/006 Rovinj 1955–2014 3 188.000 276 999.333 < 0.000 1 <0.01 280/011 Bakar 1930–2013 41 832.000 804 104.000 < 0.000 1 <0.01 280/021 Split Rt Marjana 1952–2011 1 500.000 271 295.333 0.004 <0.40 280/031 Split – Gradska Luka 1954–2014 3 972.000 294 894.000 < 0.000 1 <0.01 280/081 Dubrovnik 1956–2014 5 667.000 272 425.000 <0.000 1 <0.01 330/071 Alexandria 1944–2006 7 542.000 284 224.667 <0.000 1 <0.01 340/001 Ceuta 1944–2016 5 955.000 460 473.000 <0.000 1 <0.01
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Table 4. Estimated seasonal Sen’s slopes
PSMSL station
codeStation Data range Sen’s slope /
mm·a–1VLM/
mm·a–1Tide gauge VLM
corrected/mm·a–1220/021 Tarifa 1943–2016 1.25 –0.27 1.52 220/011 Algeciras 1943–2002 0.29 –0.26 0.55 220/031 Malaga 1944–2013 1.08 –0.21 1.29 230/051 Marseille 1885–2016 1.25 –0.32 1.57 250/011 Genova 1884–1997 1.23 –0.16 1.39 270/054 Venezia (Punta Della Salute) 1909–2000 2.41 –0.03 2.44 270/061 Trieste 1875–2016 1.30 –0.03 1.33 280/006 Rovinj 1955–2014 0.79 –0.06 0.85 280/011 Bakar 1930–2013 1.00 –0.04 1.04 280/021 Split Rt Marjana 1952–2011 0.44 –0.12 0.56 280/031 Split–Gradska Luka 1954–2014 0.95 –0.12 1.07 280/081 Dubrovnik 1956–2014 1.38 –0.13 1.51 330/071 Alexandria 1944–2006 1.78 –0.12 1.90 340/001 Ceuta 1944–2016 0.71 –0.26 0.97
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