The impact of concurrent variation of atmospheric meridional heat transport in western Baffen Bay and eastern Greenland on summer Arctic sea ice
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Abstract: Based on the climatological reanalysis data of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Arctic sea ice data of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the relationship between the Arctic sea ice area (SIA) and the interannual variation of atmospheric meridional heat transport (AMHT) was analyzed. The results show that the atmospheric meridional heat transported by transient eddy (TAMHT) dominates the June AMHT in mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, while the western Baffin Bay (B) and the eastern Greenland (G) are two gates for TAMHT entering the Arctic. TAMHT in the western Baffin Bay (B-TAMHT) and eastern Greenland (G-TAMHT) has a concurrent variation of reverse phase, which is closely related to the summer Arctic SIA. Possible mechanism is that the three Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns (AD, AO and NAO) in June can cause the concurrent variation of TAMHT in the B and G regions. This concurrent variation helps to maintain AD anomaly in summer through wave action and changes the polar air temperature, thus affecting the summer Arctic SIA. Calling the heat entering the Arctic as warm transport and the heat leaving Arctic as cold transport, then the results are classified into three situations based on B-TAMHT and G-TAMHT: warm B corresponding to cold G (WC), cold B corresponding to warm G (CW), cold B corresponding to cold G (CC), while warm B corresponding to warm G is virtually non-existent. During the WC situation, the SIA in the Pacific Arctic sediments and Kara Sea decreases; during the CW situation, the SIA in the Laptev Sea and Kara Sea decreases; during the CC situation, the SIA in the Kara Sea, Laptev Sea and southern Beaufort Sea increases.
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Key words:
- Arctic /
- atmospheric meridional heat transport /
- transient eddy /
- sea ice /
- Arctic dipole
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Figure 1. The spatial distribution of correlation coefficients between zonal mean TAMHT of 60°N latitude and summer (June to September) Arctic SIA from 1979 to 2014. a. May, b. June and c. July. The confidence level of shade is above 0.05.
Figure 2. The spatial distribution of correlation coefficients between zonal-mean TAMHT of 60°N latitude and summer Arctic SIA by each month from 1979 to 2014. a. June, b. July, c. August, and d. September. The confidence level of shade is above 0.05.
Figure 3. The correlation between KSIA in summer and TAMHT at 60°N (a) and B-TAMHT and G-TAMHT in vertical direction (b) in June.
Figure 4. Time series of B-TAMHT and G-TAMHT in June (a) (dashed red and blue lines indicate the 30% percentile and 70% percentile of B-TAMHT and G-TAMHT, respectively) and spatial distribution of correlation coefficient between B-TAMHT and Arctic TAMHT on grid in June (b) (the shade is the correlation cofficient whose confidence level is above 0.05 and the green box is the extent of the B area and G area).
Figure 6. Composite 500 hPa geopotential height (HGT) and horizontal wind (a–c), sea level pressure (SLP) and 10 m wind (d–f), surface air temperature (SAT) (g–i), and sea ice concentration (SIC) (j–l) in summer. The confidence level of squares, arrows and white dotted line is above 0.1.
Figure 7. Summer Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) regressed linearly on the H index for the period of 1979–2014. The confidence level of contours is 0.05.
Figure 8. Composite TAMHT under three kinds of Arctic atmospheric circulation anomaly in June. a. Positive AO, b. positive NAO, c. positive AD, d. negative AO, e. negative NAO, and f. negative AD.
Figure 9. Summer Arctic climatic factors regressed linearly on the standardized H index for the period of 1979–2014. a. Sea level pressure, b. 500 hPa geopotential height and c. surface air temperature. The confidence level of contours is 0.05.
Table 1. Three different types of AMHT and their proportions in the summer half year of 1979–2014
Transient eddy Stationary eddy Mean meridional circulation Heat value/J 3.164×105 7.70×104 9.75×104 Percentage/% 64 16 20 
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Table 2. The anomalous years of TAMHT in June
Anomalous years B-TAMHT+G-TAMHT–(WC) 1982, 1998, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012 B-TAMHT–G-TAMHT+(CW) 1986, 1988, 1995, 2005, 2010 B-TAMHT+G-TAMHT+(OO) – B-TAMHT–G-TAMHT–(CC) 1994, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2006
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Table 3. The correlation coefficients between H index and three atmospheric circulation pattern index
May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. JJAS AD 0.01 –0.51* –0.4 –0.32 –0.13 –0.47* AO –0.28 –0.43* –0.2 0.02 0.25 –0.19 NAO –0.14 –0.46* –0.29 –0.27 0.14 –0.38 Note: Bold represents passing the 95% confidence level and asterisk (*) represents passing the 99% confidence level.
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