FORECAST OF SEA ICE REGIME

It has been found that the sea-surface temperature and the characteristics of atmospheric circulation in the preceding months are closely related to the temperature and ice regime in winter months. This relationship is strikingly reflected over the strong ocean current regions and over the regions with quasi-permanent atmospheric center actions. It has also been shown that the influence of the ocean on the atmosphere is more pronounced over these regions. This relationship may offer a key for long-term forecasting of the sea-ice regime in winter. In addition, because there is an obvious instability, the stabilities of the correlation coefficients are analysed. In consideration of the fact that the formation of weather process changes with the variations of time scale, predictions for longer and shorter time scale processes are discussed separately.
In conclusion, some forecasting results obtained and tests made in recent years are given.