APPRQACH TO PREDICTION OF OUTBREAK QUANTITYAND PERIOD FOR FIRST-GENERATION ARMYWORMWITH SEA TEMPERATURE

So far, no literature has ever reported the prediction of plant diseases and insects outbreak by using sea surface temperature.This article aims at setting up a long-range prediction model of the outbreak quantity and period for the first-generation armyworm by using the surface water temperature of the North Pacific as predictor.Our preliminary study has yielded a desirable result, which adds a new approach of modelling in the prediction of armyworm outbreak.