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Are trends in SeaWiFS chlorophyll time-series unusual relative to historic variability
James A Yoder, Maureen A Kennelly, Scott C Doney, Ivan D Lima
2010(2): 1-4. doi: 10.1007/s13131-010-0016-o
Keywords: SeaWiFS, trends, climate change, chlorophyll, biogeochemical model, ENSO
For selected locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean, we compared surface ocean chlorophyll time series extracted from SeaWiFS imagery from 1997-2004 with the results of an ocean coupled circulation and biogeochemical model covering the period 1958-2004. During the 1997-2004 time period, linear trends in model and satellite time series were significantly correlated at most of the 44 sites we studied. Eleven sites were selected for further study, and we used the longer time series of the model to assess whether trends observed during the SeaWiFS period at these 11 sites were unusual in relation to those observed over the longer historical period covered by the model. The results show that the trends observed during the SeaWiFS period were not unusual and fell well within the range in magnitude of linear trends observed in other 8-year periods of model output. This result implies that the SeaWiFS satellite ocean color time series is not yet sufficiently long, on its own, to directly observe any long term changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll that may be occurring in the surface waters of the open ocean as a result of increased ocean stratification linked to global climate changed.
A 10-year wave energy resource assessment and trends of Indonesia based on satellite observations
Amiruddin, Ribal Agustinus, Khaeruddin, Thamrin Sri Astuti
2019, 38(8): 86-93. doi: 10.1007/s13131-019-1400-z
Keywords: wave power energy, trends, ENVISAT altimeter, significant wave height, wave period
Wave energy resource assessment and trends around Indonesian’s ocean has been carried out by means of analyzing satellite observations. Wave energy flux or wave power can be approximated using parameterized sea states derived from satellite data. Unfortunately, only some surface parameters can be measured from remote sensing satellites, for example for ocean surface waves: significant wave height. Others, like peak wave period and energy period are not available, but can instead be estimated using empirical models. The results have been assessed by meteorological season. The assessment shows clearly where and when the wave power resource is promising around Indonesian’s ocean. The most striking result was found from June to August, in which about 30-40 kW/m (the 90th percentile: 40-60 kW/m, the 99th percentile: 50-70 kW/m) wave power energy on average has been found around south of the Java Island. The significant trends of wave energy at the 95% level have also been studied and it is found that the trends only occurred for the extreme cases, which is the 99th percentile (i.e., highest 1%). Wave power energy could increase up to 150 W/m per year. The significant wave heights and wave power have been compared with the results obtained from global wave model hindcast carried out by wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ. The comparisons indicated excellent agreements.
Long-term changes in sea surface temperature (SST) within the southern Levantine Basin
Tarek M. El-Geziry
2021, 40(3): 27-33. doi: 10.1007/s13131-021-1709-2  Published:2021-04-30
Keywords: Mediterranean Sea, Levantine Basin, sea surface temperature, anomaly, trends, warming
Knowledge of sea surface temperature (SST) behaviour is vital for long-term climate scenarios. This study highlights essential outcomes about the distinguishable and unsurprising warming of the SST along the southern border of the Levantine Basin. The analysis is based on monthly SST data for the period 1948–2018. The southern Levantine Basin has undergone SST increase, during the last 71 years. In this study, a consistent warming trend has been found for the analysed SST data series, with a rate of 0.04°C/a, i.e., 0.4°C/(10 a). From 1975 to 1991 the mean annual SST was 17.1°C, and this increased to be 19.2°C, over the period 2002–2018. Results revealed two opposite trends of variability: a decreasing trend (–0.06°C/a) over the period 1975–1991, and an increasing trend (0.2°C/a) from 2002 to 2018. Over the period 1948–2018, positive mean annual SST anomalies had an average of 1.8°C, and negative anomalies had an average of –1.1°C. The lowest SST total increase was found from January to April, with values about 0.03°C, while the highest warming appeared from June to September. The driving mechanisms behind the SST changes need to be more investigated, to understand the future trends and impacts of climate change in the Levantine Basin.
Declined trends of chlorophyll a in the South China Sea over 2005−2019 from remote sensing reconstruction
Tianhao Wang, Yu Sun, Hua Su, Wenfang Lu
2023, 42(1): 12-24. doi: 10.1007/s13131-022-2097-y  Published:2023-01-25
Keywords: chlorophyll a concentration, quantile trends, remote sensing reconstruction, South China Sea
Chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) is an important proxy of the marine ecological environment and phytoplankton production. Long-term trends in CHL of the South China Sea (SCS) reflect the changes in the ecosystem’s productivity and functionality in the regional carbon cycle. In this study, we applied a previously reconstructed 15-a (2005−2019) CHL product, which has a complete coverage at 4 km and daily resolutions, to analyze the long-term trends of CHL in the SCS. Quantile regression was used to elaborate on the long-term trends of high, median, and low CHL values, as an extended method of conventional linear regression. The results showed downward trends of the SCS CHL for the 75th, 50th, and 25th quantile in the past 15 a, which were −0.004 0 mg/(m3·a) (−1.62% per year), −0.002 3 mg/(m3·a) (−1.10% per year), and −0.001 9 mg/(m3·a) (−1.01% per year). The negative trends in winter (November to March) were more prominent than those in summer (May to September). In terms of spatial distribution, the downward trend was more significant in regions with higher CHL. These led to a reduced standard deviation of CHL over time and space. We further explored the influence of various dynamic factors on CHL trends for the entire SCS and two typical systems (winter Luzon Strait (LZ) and summer Vietnam Upwelling System (SV)) with single-variate linear regression and multivariate Random Forest analysis. The multivariate analysis suggested the CHL trend pattern can be best explained by the trends of wind speed and mixed-layer depth. The divergent importance of controlling factors for LZ and SV can explain the different CHL trends for the two systems. This study expanded our understanding of the long-term changes of CHL in the SCS and provided a reference for investigating changes in the marine ecosystem.
Mediterranean Sea level trends from long-period tide gauge time series
Haddad Mahdi, Taibi Hebib
2020, 39(1): 157-165. doi: 10.1007/s13131-020-1532-1  Published:2020-01-20
Keywords: sea level, tidal heights, trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimates
The main purpose of this study is to highlight, on the basis of statistical tests, the significant long-term changes of the Mediterranean Sea level, through the analysis of historical tide gauge records. In this framework, 14 tide gauge monthly series selected from the Permanent Service of the Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database were used. The search for the presence or not of trends within these series, that have a temporal coverage from 59 to 142 years, was carried out using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimator. The obtained results show that the Split Rt Marjana series are the only ones which does not exhibit a significant trend. The other 13 series show significant increasing trends. This result seems sufficient to suppose the presence, in the past century, of a new climatic phase on the scale of the Mediterranean basin, where the rising sea level is one of the consequences.
Long-term nutrient variation trends and their potential impact on phytoplankton in the southern Yellow Sea, China
Yan Wang, Yongjian Liu, Hao Guo, Haibo Zhang, Dongmei Li, Ziwei Yao, Xiaocheng Wang, Chuan Jia
2022, 41(6): 54-67. doi: 10.1007/s13131-022-2031-3  Published:2022-06-16
Keywords: southern Yellow Sea, nutrients structure, succession of phytoplankton community, diatom, dinoflagellate
The concentration and composition of nutrients, such as N, P, and Si, respond to biogeochemical processes and in turn, impact the phytoplanktons’ community structure and primary production. In this study, historical data was systematically analyzed to identify long-term variations in nutrient trends, red tide frequency, phytoplankton community abundance, and dominant species succession in the southern Yellow Sea (SYS). Results showed that N/P concentration ratios dramatically increased as a function of increasing dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations, and Si/N concentration ratios were generally larger than 1, indicating that N limitation morphed to P limitation and potentially to Si limitation, which impacted the phytoplankton community. Furthermore, inter-annual trends over the past 50 years show that phytoplankton community abundance has been higher in spring and summer, relative to autumn and winter. Moreover, with respect to red tide frequency, diatom abundance gradually decreased, while that of dinoflagellates gradually increased. Dominant species succession showed that the phytoplankton community exhibited an evident tendency to transform from diatoms to dinoflagellates. These research results clearly depict the presence of an important correlation between the phytoplankton community and nutrient structure in the SYS.
Trends of sea surface temperature and sea surface temperature fronts in the South China Sea during 2003-2017
Yu Yi, Zhang Hao-Ran, Jin Jiangbo, Wang Yuntao
2019, 38(4): 106-115. doi: 10.1007/s13131-019-1416-4
Keywords: South China Sea, sea surface temperature, sea surface temperature fronts, warming trend, wind stress
The trends of the sea surface temperature (SST) and SST fronts in the South China Sea (SCS) are analyzed during 2003-2017 using high-resolution satellite data. The linear trend of the basin averaged SST is 0.31℃ per decade, with the strongest warming identified in southeastern Vietnam. Although the rate of warming is comparable in summer and winter for the entire basin, the corresponding spatial patterns of the linear trend are substantially different between them. The SST trend to the west of the Luzon Strait is characterized by rapid warming in summer, exceeding approximately 0.6℃ per decade, but the trend is insignificant in winter. The strongest warming trend occurs in the southeast of Vietnam in winter, with much less pronounced warming in summer. A positive trend of SST fronts is identified for the coast of China and is associated with increasing wind stress. The increasing trend of SST fronts is also found in the east of Vietnam. Large-scale circulation, such as El Niño, can influence the trends of the SST and SST fronts. A significant correlation is found between the SST anomaly and Niño3.4 index, and the ENSO signal leads by eight months. The basin averaged SST linear trends increase after the El Niño event (2009-2010), which is, at least, due to the rapid warming rate causing by the enhanced northeasterly wind. Peaks of positive anomalous SST and negatively anomalous SST fronts are found to co-occur with the strong El Niño events.
A shift in the upper-ocean temperature trends in the South China Sea since the late 1990s
WANG Zhaoyun, ZHAI Fangguo, LI Peiliang
2016, 35(11): 44-51. doi: 10.1007/s13131-016-0947-1
Keywords: South China Sea, sea surface temperature, trend, interdecadal variability, heat budget
In this paper, the interdecadal variability of upper-ocean temperature in the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated based on several objectively analyzed data sets and two reanalysis data sets. The trends of the SCS sea surface temperature (SST) have changed from warming to cooling since the late 1990s. A heat budget analysis suggests that the warming of the surface mixed layer during 1984-1999 is primarily attributed to the horizontal heat advection and the decrease of upward long wave radiation, with the net surface heat flux playing a damping role due to the increase of upward latent and sensible heat fluxes. On the other hand, the cooling of the surface mixed layer during 2000-2009 is broadly controlled by net surface heat flux, with the radiation flux playing the dominant role. A possible mechanism is explored that the variation of a sea level pressure (SLP) over the North Pacific Ocean may change the prevailing winds over the SCS, which contributes to the change of the SST in the SCS through the horizontal heat advection and heat fluxes.
Trends” and variations of global oceanic evaporation data sets from remote sensing
CHIU Long S, CHOKNGAMWONG R, XING Yukun, YANG Ruixin, SHIE Chung-Lin
2008(3): 124-135.
Keywords: Oceanic evaporaton, climate change, ENSOHadlay circulation
The variability in global oceanic evaporation data sets was examined for the period 1988-2000.These data sets are satellite estimates based on bulk aerodynamic formulations and include the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Flux version 2 (GSSTF2), the Japanese-ocean flux using remote sensing observations (J-OFURO), and the Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite version 2 (HOAPS2).The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis is also included for comparison.An increase in global average surface latent heat flux (SLHF) can be observed in all the data sets.Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) shows long-term increases that started around 1990 for all remote sensing data sets.The effect of Mt.Pinatubo eruption in 1991 is clearly evident in HOAPS2 but is independent of the long-term increase.Linear regression analyses show increases of 9.4%, 13.0%, 7.3%, and 3.9% for GSSTF2, J-OFURO, HOAPS2 and NCEP, for the periods of the data sets.Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses show that the pattern of the first EOF of all data sets is consistent with a decadal variation associated with the enhancement of the tropical Hadley circulation, which is supported by other satellite observations.The second EOF of all four data sets is an ENSO mode, and the correlations between their time series and an SOI are 0.74, 0.71, 0.59, and 0.61 for GSSTF2, J-OFURO, HOAPS2, and NCEP in that order.When the Hadley modes are removed from the remote sensing data, the residue global increases are reduced to 2.2%, 7.3%, and <1% for GSSTF2, J-OFURO and HOAPS, respectively.If the ENSO mode is used as a calibration standard for the data sets, the Hadley mode is at least comparable to, if not larger than, the ENSO mode during our study period.
What induced the trend shift of mixed-layer depths in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region in the mid-1980s?
Shan Liu, Jingzhi Su, Huijun Wang, Cuijuan Sui
2024, 43(1): 11-21. doi: 10.1007/s13131-023-2268-5  Published:2024-01-01
Keywords: mixed layer depth, trend shift, Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), flow axis
An obvious trend shift in the annual mean and winter mixed layer depth (MLD) in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) region was detected during the 1960–2021 period. Shallowing trends stopped in mid-1980s, followed by a period of weak trends. The MLD deepening trend difference between the two periods were mainly distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage, the areas north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land, and the central parts of the South Indian sector. The newly formed ocean current shear due to the meridional shift of the ACC flow axis between the two periods is the dominant driver for the MLD trends shift distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage and the central parts of the South Indian sector. The saltier trends in the regions north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land could be responsible for the strengthening mixing processes in this region.
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