Dynamic simulation of tropical coral reef ecosystem being disturbed by multiple situations

Geng Wang Rui Dong Huimin Xu Dewen Ding

Geng Wang, Rui Dong, Huimin Xu, Dewen Ding. Dynamic simulation of tropical coral reef ecosystem being disturbed by multiple situations[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica. doi: 10.1007/s13131-021-1779-1
Citation: Geng Wang, Rui Dong, Huimin Xu, Dewen Ding. Dynamic simulation of tropical coral reef ecosystem being disturbed by multiple situations[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica. doi: 10.1007/s13131-021-1779-1

doi: 10.1007/s13131-021-1779-1

Dynamic simulation of tropical coral reef ecosystem being disturbed by multiple situations

Funds: The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Science under contract No. XDA13020401.
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    Corresponding author: E-mail address: wanggeng@lnnu.edu.cn
  • Estimated by existing research, 300 hm2 of coral reefs can support about 2 000 ind.crown-of-thorns starfish with an initial living coral coverage of 11.6%.
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    Estimated by existing research, 300 hm2 of coral reefs can support about 2 000 ind.crown-of-thorns starfish with an initial living coral coverage of 11.6%.
  • Figure  1.  Block diagram of a coral reef ecosystem. ①②③ all mean predation.

    Figure  2.  Dynamics process of coral reef systems. The gray "< >" variables in the figure are shadow variables in system dynamics vensim.

    Figure  3.  Coral coverage area fitting comparison.

    Figure  4.  Simulation results of the functional group number of coral reef SD model.

    Figure  5.  Impact of single factor disturbance on the functional groups of coral reef ecosystem, the factors are fishing policy (scenarios F1), terrestrial deposition (scenarios F2) and total amount of inorganic nitrogen emissions (scenarios F3).

    Figure  7.  Impact of multiple factors disturbance on the functional groups of coral reef ecosystem, the combination of factors are fishing policy, terrestrial deposition and total amount of inorganic nitrogen emissions.

    Figure  6.  Impact of double factors disturbance on the functional groups of coral reef ecosystem, the combination of factors are fishing policy and terrestrial deposition (scenarios F4), fishing policy and total amount of inorganic nitrogen emissions (scenarios F5), terrestrial deposition and total amount of inorganic nitrogen emissions (scenarios F6).

    Table  1.   Functional groups and major organisms of coral reef ecosystems

    Functional groupsInterpretationRepresentative creature
    Reef-building organismsthe main builder of coral reefs, organisms which have the
    ability to build reefs
    hermatypic corals and other
    reef-building organisms
    Macroalgaean important part of the coral reef which competes
    with corals, especially in space
    large fleshy seaweed, such as leafy seaweed,
    cortical large seaweed
    Herbivorous fishpredators of macroalgaeparrotfish
    Enemy organismspredators of hermatypic coralscrown-of-thorns starfish
    Balanced organismspredators of the enemies of hermatypic coralscharonia tritonis
    下载: 导出CSV

    Table  2.   Main variables and expressions of the coral reef SD model

    ModuleVariable nameTypeEquation expression
    Icoral recruitment area/(104 m2)RV=MIN (potential new coral recruitment, available space for coral reef)
    coral grazing area/(104 m2)RV=MAX (crown-of-thorns starfish stock×average crown-of-thorns starfish predation coefficient, 0)
    coral carbonate productivity/(kg·a–1·m–2)AV=living coral coverage rate×coral average calcification rate
    coral reef decline/(104 m2)RV=coral reef stock/coral reef decay time+coral reef stock×(erosion rate by human activities+natural erosion rate)+parrotfish stock×3×10-7
    sediment/(104 m2)LV=INTEG (sediment input+coral reef decline stock–sediment dissipation, 10)
    available space for coral reef/(104 m2)AV=coral reef stock-(coral recruitment+mature coral stock+macroalgae stock)
    effect of sediment on carbonate productivity of coral reefsAV=WITH LOOKUP {sediment, ([(0, 0)–(40, 1)], (0, 1),(5, 0.8), (10, 0.6), (15, 0.4), (20, 0.1), (30, 0), (40, 0)}
    IIinorganic nitrogen content of coral
    reef/(mg·L–1)
    LV=INTEG (inorganic nitrogen dissolution–inorganic nitrogen dissipation, 0.02)
    potential new recruits macroalgae/(104 m2)AV=mature macroalgae stock×annual average spawning efficiency of macroalgae×annual average spawning frequency of macroalgae
    macroalgae recruitment/(104 m2)RV=MIN (available space for coral reef, potential new macroalgae recruitment)
    macroalgae time to mature/aAV=normal macroalgae time to mature×effect of nutrients on macroalgae time to mature×effect of sediment on macroalgae time to mature
    effect of nutrients on macroalgae time to matureAV=WITH LOOKUP (inorganic nitrogen content of coral reef, {[(0, 0)–(5, 1)], (0, 1), (1, 0.5), (2, 0.4), (15, 0.4), (3, 0.3), (4, 0.2), (5, 0.1)}
    IIIparrotfish overcrowding/ind.AV=MAX(0, parrotfish stock–parrotfish environmental capacity)
    spawning efficiency of parrotfishAV=WITH LOOKUP (mature coral stock, ([(0, 0)–(350, 0.8)], (0, 0.1),(100, 0.4), (150, 0.45), (200, 0.5), (250, 0.55), (300, 0.6), (350, 0.65))
    parrotfish recruits mortalityAV=WITH LOOKUP(coral reef stock, ([(0, 0.6)–(1000, 1)], (0, 0.9), (200, 0.85), (400, 0.8), (600, 0.75), (800, 0.7), (1000, 0.65))
    crown-of-thorns starfish time to mature/aAV=nomal crown-of-thorns starfish time to mature×effect of phytoplankton
    increase on crown-of-thorns starfish time to mature
    Note: The first column indicates the submodule to which the variable belongs, where I is a coral submodule, II is a macroalgae submodule, III is another biological submodule; and the third column represents the variable type, where LV is the level variable, RV is the rate variable, and AV is the auxiliary variable. INTEG, WITH LOOKUP are functional expressions in System Dynamics Vensim software.
    下载: 导出CSV

    Table  3.   Main parameters and sources of the model

    No.MethodMain parameterValueReference
    1Relevant literature determination or estimationaverage annual spawning frequency of corals/(ind.∙a–1)1Zhang et al. (2013)
    annual natural mortality of living corals/ind.0.1Huang et al. (2012); Zhou et al. (2017)
    average annual disease rate of corals/ind.0.1Huang et al. (2012); Zhu et al. (2012)
    normal time for corals to mature/a1Huang et al. (2011); Shen et al. (2014)
    average predation coefficient of crown-of-thorns starfish/(104 m2∙ind.–1)0.001 825Bartelet (2017)
    average coral calcification rate/(g·cm–2·a–1)Shi et al. (2009); Zhang and Chen (2006)
    2Statistical yearbook and bulletin of the state of the marine environmentlive coral coverage rate/ind.National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China (2010–2016); South China Sea Bureau of Natural Resources Ministry (2013–2017)
    frequency of disasters/ind.
    inorganic nitrogen content of coral reefs/(mg∙L–1)
    3Table function determinationthe effects of sediments on the carbonate productivity of coral reefs, the influence of sediments on the time corals and macroalgae need to mature, the effects of nutrients on the time macroalgae need to mature, et cetera/ind.Szmant (2002); Fabricius et al. (2003);
    Zou and Xia (2011)
    4Delphi method, trend extrapolation methoddecay time of the coral reef/a500
    average dissipation factor/ind.0.25
    inorganic nitrogen dissolution factor/ind.15
    inorganic nitrogen diffusion factor/ind.10
    5Simulation trial methodreef accretion factor/ind.0.001 8the result of multiple simulation
    based on the model
    natural recovery rate of coral/ind.0.03
    intensity of human activities/ind.0.1
    下载: 导出CSV

    Table  4.   Scenario design parameter settings

    No.VariablesCurrent valueAdjusted valueRelevant equationsInterpretation of the variable
    Threshold AThreshold B
    1Fishing policy ontrol variable123total number of captured fish=RANDOM UNIFORM (8 000, 12 000, 1)×fishing policy control variablean indicator of the fishing intensity; the larger value, the more average annual catch
    2Terrestrial deposition11.52.5amount of terrestrial deposition =RANDOM UNIFORM (0, 5, 1)× amount of terrestrial depositionrepresents sediments discharged from land to sea; the greater the value, the more sediments are inputted
    3Total amount of inorganic nitrogen emissions/(mg∙L-1)0.224.5amount of inorganic nitrogen emissions=inorganic nitrogen caused by emissions + inorganic nitrogen caused by tourismthe inorganic nitrogen emissions by human activities; the greater the value, the more inorganic nitrogen is dissolved into the coral reef
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2020-03-13
  • 录用日期:  2020-05-14
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-06-29

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