Arctic sea ice volume export through the Fram Strait: variation and its effect factors
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Abstract: Arctic sea ice export is important for the redistribution of freshwater and sea ice mass. Here, we use the sea ice thickness, sea ice velocity, and sea ice concentration (SIC) to estimate the exported sea ice volume through the Fram Strait from 2011 to 2018. We further analyse the contributions of the sea ice thickness, velocity and concentration to sea ice volume export. Then, the relationships between atmospheric circulation indices (Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Dipole (AD)) and the sea ice volume export are discussed. Finally, we analyse the impact of wind-driven oceanic circulation indices (Ekman transport (ET)) on the sea ice volume export. The sea ice volume export rapidly increases in winter and decreases in spring. The exported sea ice volume in winter is likely to exceed that in spring in the future. Among sea ice thickness, velocity and SIC, the greatest contribution to sea ice export comes from the ice velocity. The exported sea ice volume through the zonal gate of the Fram Strait (which contributes 97% to the total sea ice volume export of the Fram Strait) is much higher than that through the meridional gate (3%) because the sea ice flowing out of the zonal gate has the characteristics of a high thickness (mainly thicker than 1 m), a high velocity (mainly faster than 0.06 m/s) and a high concentration (mainly higher than 80%). The AD and ET explain 53.86% and 38.37% of the variation in sea ice volume export, respectively.
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Key words:
- sea ice thickness /
- sea ice velocity /
- sea ice concentration /
- sea ice volume export /
- Arctic Dipole /
- Ekman transport /
- Fram Strait
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Figure 1. Extents of the Arctic Ocean and its marginal sea areas (red box shows the location of the Fram Strait) (a), and zonal gate and meridional gate of the Fram Strait (b).
Figure 2. Variations in the total sea ice volume export (Q), export flux through the zonal gate (Qx), and export flux through the meridional gate (Qy) from 2011 to 2018. The black dotted line represents the monthly average total sea ice volume export with the corresponding uncertainty, and Ratio_x (Ratio_y) represents the contribution of Qx (Qy) to Q (a); multi-year (2011–2018) monthly average sea ice volume export (b).
Figure 4. Monthly (a) and seasonal (b) average sea ice volume export through the gate A from this study (black line) and from Min et al. (2019) (red line). Note that error bars show one standard deviation.
Figure 5. Standardized monthly mean sea ice volume export (Q, black line) and the corresponding monthly mean sea ice velocity (blue line), sea ice thickness (green line) and sea ice concentration (SIC) (red line) from 2011 to 2018. ** denotes p< 0.01.
Figure 6. Seasonal variation in the relative frequency (RF) (%) of the sea ice thickness over the zonal gate (a) and meridional gate (b) of the Fram Strait from 2011 to 2018.
Figure 7. Seasonal variation in the relative frequency (RF) (%) of the sea ice velocity over the zonal gate (a) and meridional gate (b) of the Fram Strait from 2011 to 2018.
Figure 8. Seasonal variation in the relative frequency (RF) (%) of the sea ice concentration (SIC) over the zonal gate (a) and meridional gate (b) of the Fram Strait from 2011 to 2018.
Figure 9. The monthly mean sea ice volume export (Q, black line) and the corresponding standardized mean monthly Arctic Oscillation (AO) (blue line), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (red line) and Arctic Dipole (AD) (purple line) indices from 2011 to 2018, including the correlation coefficient (r). ** denotes p<0.01, * denotesp<0.05.
Figure 10. Changes in yearly and seasonally Ekman transport (ET) from 2011 to 2018 (a); the standardized monthly mean sea ice volume export (Q, black line) and the corresponding standardized mean monthly ET (red line) index from 2011 to 2018, including the correlation coefficient (r) (b). ** denotes p<0.01.
Figure 11. The spatial distribution of Ekman transport (ET) in the Fram Strait and its surrounding regions in winter 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017.
Table 1. Monthly sea ice volume export (km3) from 2011 to 2018
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan. −227.53 −122.42 −80.35 −41.85 −194.73 −215.87 −611.79 −252.26 Feb. 26.84 −343.20 −129.60 −149.29 −571.36 −259.18 −229.89 −24.00 Mar. −522.62 −252.66 −276.96 −364.08 −528.74 −268.73 −643.99 −161.75 Apr. −216.12 −354.94 −347.20 −565.98 −385.36 −297.74 −416.06 −228.46 May −334.43 −362.59 −210.71 −359.62 −268.48 −270.51 −388.01 −66.13 Jun. −242.20 −218.45 −112.01 −158.85 −341.68 −236.83 −175.53 −235.36 Jul. −81.29 −137.02 −82.21 −82.65 −145.51 −68.31 −27.57 −5.64 Aug. −63.81 −127.32 −78.40 −273.41 −0.53 −239.83 −104.25 −5.28 Sept. −40.05 −89.80 2.74 −240.72 −127.48 −178.92 9.42 −139.09 Oct. −169.52 −163.13 −135.72 −251.95 −87.66 −173.86 −156.18 −194.21 Nov. −184.85 −117.19 −295.88 −249.67 −258.80 −189.79 −170.10 −306.79 Dec. −295.35 −165.31 −189.71 −506.32 −355.86 −284.26 −262.04 −504.89 Note: The absolute of underlined font indicates the maximum in a year, and the absolute of bold font indicates the minimum in a year. 
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Table 2. Statistic of different studies for the sea ice volume export
This study Min et al. (2019) Kwok and Rothrock (1999) Kwok et al. (2004) Period 2011–2018 2011–2016 2011–2016 1991–1995 1991–1998 Average volume flux/km3 −2 096/−1 299 −2 226/−1 374 −2 303/−1 352 −2 506 −2 218 Note: The underlined font indicates the sea ice volume export through the gate A, and the bold font indicates the sea ice volume export through the gate B (~79°N gate). The listed volume flux represents the average volume flux during the corresponding study period.
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Table 3. Mean and relative standard deviation (RSD) of the sea ice thickness, sea ice velocity and sea ice concentration
Ice thickness Ice velocity Ice concentration Mean 1.20 m 0.08 m/s 60.50% RSD 0.10 0.49 0.12
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Table 4. The multiple general linear model (GLM) analysis on the relationship between the sea ice volume export and three impact factors (Arctic Dipole (AD), ArcticOscillation (AO) and Ekman transport (ET))
AD AO ET Residuals MS 392 605 42 498 279 708 14 075 SS/% 53.86*** 5.83 38.37*** 1.93 Note: *** denotes p<0.001; MS: mean squares.
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