HUANG Chuanjiang, QIAO Fangli. Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2015, 34(3): 31-41. doi: 10.1007/s13131-015-0631-x
Citation: HUANG Chuanjiang, QIAO Fangli. Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2015, 34(3): 31-41. doi: 10.1007/s13131-015-0631-x

Sea level rise projection in the South China Sea from CMIP5 models

doi: 10.1007/s13131-015-0631-x
  • Received Date: 2014-05-25
  • Rev Recd Date: 2014-10-10
  • Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea (SCS) is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. By the end of the 21st century (2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005), the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level (DSL) is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise (SLR) of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level (SSL) rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.
  • loading
  • Beckley B D, Zelensky N P, Holmes S A, et al. 2010. Assessment of the Jason-2 extension to the TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 sea-surface height time series for global mean sea level monitoring. Marine Geodesy, 33(1): 447-471
    Bentsen M, Bethke I, Debernard J B, et al. 2012. The Norwegian earth system model, NorESM1-M: Part 1. description and basic evaluation. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 5: 2843-2931
    Bi D, Dix M, Marsland S J, et al. 2013. The ACCESS coupled model: description, control climate and evaluation. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 63(1): 41-64
    Bouttes N, Gregory J M. 2014. Attribution of the spatial pattern of CO2-forced sea level change to ocean surface flux changes. Environmental Research Letters, 9(3): 034004
    Cheng Xuhua, Qi Yiquan. 2007. Trends of sea level variations in the South China Sea from merged altimetry data. Global and Planetary Change, 57(3-4): 371-382
    Church J A, Clark P U, Cazenave A, et al. 2013. Sea level change. In: Stocker T F, Qin D, Plattner G K, et al., eds. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1137-1216
    Church J A, White N J, Coleman R, et al. 2004. Estimates of the regional distribution of sea level rise over the 1950-2000 period. Journal of Climate, 17(13): 2609-2625
    Danabasoglu G, Bates S C, Briegleb B P, et al. 2012. The CCSM4 ocean component. Journal of Climate, 25(5): 1361-1389
    Dong Lu, Zhou Tianjun. 2013. Steric sea level change in twentieth century historical climate simulation and IPCC-RCP8. 5 scenario projection: a comparison of two versions of FGOALS model. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 30(3): 841-854
    Dufresne J L, Foujols M A, Denvil S, et al. 2013. Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 earth system model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Climate Dynamics, 40(9-10): 2123-2165
    Dunne J P, John J G, Adcroft A J, et al. 2012. GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon earth system models: Part I. Physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. Journal of Climate, 25(19): 6646-6665
    Fang Guohong, Chen Haiying, Wei Zexun, et al. 2006. Trends and interannual variability of the South China Sea surface winds, surface height, and surface temperature in the recent decade. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111(C11): C11S16
    Feng Wei, Zhong Min, Xu Houze. 2012. Sea level variations in the South China Sea inferred from satellite gravity, altimetry, and oceanographic data. Science China: Earth Sciences, 55(10): 1696-1701
    Flato G, Marotzke J, Abiodun B, et al. 2013. Evaluation of climate models. In: Stocker T F, Qin D, Plattner G K, et al., eds. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 741-866
    Fogli P G, Manzini E, Vichi M, et al. 2009. INGV-CMCC carbon (ICC): a carbon cycle earth system model. In: CMCC Technical Reports. Lecce, Italy: Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change, 1-31
    Gleckler P J, Santer B D, Domingues C M, et al. 2012. Human-induced global ocean warming on multidecadal time scales. Nature Climate Change, 2(7): 524-529
    Gordon H, O'Farrell S, Collier M, et al. 2010. The CSIRO Mk3.5 Climate Model. CAWCR Technical Report No. 021. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, 62. available online at: http://www.cawcr.gov.au/publications/technicalreports.php
    Greatbatch R J. 1994. A note on the representation of steric sea level in models that conserve volume rather than mass. Journal of Geophysical Research, 99(C6): 12767-12771
    Griffies S M, Gnanadesikan A, Dixon K W, et al. 2005. Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations. Ocean Science, 1: 45-79
    Griffies S M, Greatbatch R J. 2012. Physical processes that impact the evolution of global mean sea level in ocean climate models. Ocean Modelling, 51: 37-72
    Griffies S M, Winton M, Donner L J, et al. 2011. The GFDL CM3 coupled climate model: characteristics of the ocean and sea ice simulations. Journal of Climate, 24(13): 3520-3544
    Huang Chuanjiang, Qiao Fangli, Dai Dejun. 2014. Evaluating CMIP5 simulations of mixed layer depth during summer. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 119(4): 2568-2582
    Huang Chuanjiang, Qiao Fangli, Song Yajuan, et al. 2014. The simulation and forecast of SST in the South China Sea by CMIP5 models. Haiyang Xuebao (in Chinese), 36(1): 38-47
    Ishii M, Kimoto M, Sakamoto K, et al. 2006. Steric sea level changes estimated from historical ocean subsurface temperature and salinity analyses. Journal of Oceanography, 62(2): 155-170
    Jackett D R, McDougall T J. 1995. Minimal adjustment of hydrographic profiles to achieve static stability. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 12(2): 381-389
    Jungclaus J H, Fischer N, Haak H, et al. 2013. Characteristics of the ocean simulations in the Max Planck Institute ocean model (MPIOM) the ocean component of the MPI-Earth system model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 5(2): 422-446
    Landerer F W, Gleckler P J, Lee T. 2014. Evaluation of CMIP5 dynamic sea surface height multi-model simulations against satellite observations. Climate Dynamics, 43(5-6): 1271-1283
    Landerer F W, Jungclaus J H, Marotzke J. 2007. Regional dynamic and steric sea level change in response to the IPCC-A1B scenario. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37(2): 296-312
    Li Lijuan, Lin Pengfei, Yu Yongqiang, et al. 2013. The flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model, grid-point version 2: FGOALS-g2. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 30(3): 543-560
    Li Li, Xu Jindian, Cai Rongshuo. 2002. Trends of sea level rise in the South China Sea during the 1990s: an altimetry result. Chinese Science Bulletin, 47(7): 582-585
    Li Wei, Zhang Xuehong, Jin Xiangze. 2003. Sea level height on different approximations assumptions in ocean circulation models. Advances in Marine Science (in Chinese), 21(2): 132-141
    Liu Jiping, Schmidt G A, Martinson D G, et al. 2003. Sensitivity of sea ice to physical parameterizations in the GISS global climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(C2): 3053
    Losch M, Adcroft A, Campin J M. 2004. How sensitive are coarse general circulation models to fundamental approximations in the equations of motion? Journal of Physical Oceanography, 34(1): 306-319
    Marsland S J, Bi D, Uotila P, et al. 2013. Evaluation of ACCESS climate model ocean diagnostics in CMIP5 simulations. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 63(1): 101-119
    Merryfield W J, Lee W S, Boer G J, et al. 2013. The Canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system: Part I. Models and initialization. Monthly Weather Review, 141(8): 2910-2945
    Milne G A, Gehrels W R, Hughes C W, et al. 2009. Identifying the causes of sea-level change. Nature Geoscience, 2(7): 471-478
    Moss R H, Edmonds J A, Hibbard K A, et al. 2010. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463(7282): 747-756
    Nidheesh A G, Lengaigne M, Vialard J, et al. 2013. Decadal and longterm sea level variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean. Climate Dynamics, 41(2): 381-402
    Peng Dongju, Palanisamy H, Cazenave A, et al. 2013. Interannual sea level variations in the South China Sea over 1950-2009. Marine Geodesy, 36(2): 164-182
    Rhein M, Rintoul S R, Aoki S, et al. 2013. Observations: ocean. In: Stocker T F, Qin D, Plattner G K, et al., eds. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 255-316
    Rong Zengrui, Liu Yuguang, Zong Haibo, et al. 2007. Interannual sea level variability in the South China Sea and its response to ENSO. Global and Planetary Change, 55(4): 257-272
    Taylor K E, Stouffer R J, Meehl G A. 2012. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93(4): 485-498
    Watanabe S, Hajima T, Sudo K, et al. 2011. MIROC-ESM: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 4: 1063-1128
    Woodworth P L, Gehrels W R, Nerem R S. 2011. Nineteenth and twentieth century changes in sea level. Oceanography, 24(2): 80-93
    Wu Tongwen, Yu Rucong, Zhang Fang, et al. 2010. The Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model: description and its performance for the present-day climate. Climate Dynamics, 34(1): 123-147
    Wu Bo, Zhou Tianjun, Li Tim. 2009a. Seasonally evolving dominant interannual variability modes of East Asian climate. Journal of Climate, 22(11): 2992-3005
    Wu Bo, Zhou Tianjun, Li Tim. 2009b. Contrast of rainfall-SST relationships in the Western North Pacific between the ENSO-developing and ENSO-decaying summers. Journal of Climate, 22(16): 4398-4405
    Yin Jianjun. 2012. Century to multi-century sea level rise projections from CMIP5 models. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(17): L17709
    Yin Jianjun, Griffies S M, Stouffer R J. 2010. Spatial variability of sea level rise in twenty-first century projections. Journal of Climate, 23(17): 4585-4607
    Yukimoto S, Adachi Y, Hosaka M, et al. 2012. A new global climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute: MRI-CGCM3-model description and basic performance. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 90A: 23-64
    Zhou Tianjun, Song Fengfei, Chen Xiaolong. 2013. Historical evolution of global and regional surface air temperature simulated by FGOALS-s2 and FGOALS-g2: How reliable are the model results? Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 30(3): 638-657
    Zhou Tianjun, Wu Bo, Wang Bin. 2009. How well do atmospheric general circulation models capture the leading modes of the interannual variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon? Journal of Climate, 22(5): 1159-1173
  • 加载中

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Article Metrics

    Article views (2296) PDF downloads(3421) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return